CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-04T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30437/-1
CME Note: CME to the NE, only seen in STEREO COR2A due to an ongoing SOHO data gap starting at 2024-05-03T23:27Z. Associated with an M9.1-class flare from AR 3663 (N26W09) which peaked at 2024-05-04T06:19Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as an EUV wave and field line movement deflected to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 171/193/211. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-07T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-04T11:25Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 650
Longitude (deg): E007
Latitude (deg): N30
Half-angular width (deg): 20

Notes: Low confidence due to limited imagery.
Space weather advisor: Duty SpaceWx

Lead Time: 41.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-05T06:21Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement